Biometric Recognition: Status and Prospects for Security Technology

Recently biometrics has been in the news as a key to identifying the body of Osama bin Laden after the raid in Pakistan. Heightening security concerns around the world are leading to an expanded use of automated recognition technologies for individuals based on their behavioral and biological characteristics. Biometric systems are used increasingly to recognize individuals and regulate access to physical spaces, information, services, and other rights or benefits.

Because biometric systems use sensed traits to recognize individuals, privacy, legal, and sociological factors are involved in all applications. Biometrics in this sense sits at the intersection of biological, behavioral, social, legal, statistical, mathematical, and computer sciences as well as sensor physics and philosophy. It is no wonder that this complex set of technologies called biometrics has fascinated the government and the public for decades.

Biometric Recognition: Challenges and Opportunities provides a comprehensive assessment of biometric recognition that examines current capabilities, future possibilities, and the role of government in technology and system development This book addresses issues of effectiveness, design, and uncertainty surrounding broader implementation of this technology.

Who Goes There? Authentication Through the Lens of Privacy explores authentication technologies (passwords, PKI, biometrics, etc.) and their implications for the privacy of the individuals being authenticated. This book offers a comprehensive set of guidelines to ensure that an individual’s privacy is not unnecessarily compromised, whether by commercial or government organizations.

These books and others from the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board can add perspective and contribute to discussion.

	Biometric Recognition: Challenges and Opportunities Biometric recognition–the automated recognition of individuals based on their behavioral and biological characteristic–is promoted as a way to help identify terrorists, provide better control of access to physical facilities and financial accounts, and…
	Who Goes There?: Authentication Through the Lens of Privacy Who Goes There?: Authentication Through the Lens of Privacy explores authentication technologies (passwords, PKI, biometrics, etc.) and their implications for the privacy of the individuals being authenticated. As authentication becomes ever more…
	Summary of a Workshop on the Technology, Policy, and Cultural Dimensions of Biometric Systems Biometricsthe use of physiological and behavioral characteristics for identification purposeshas been promoted as a way to enhance security and identification efficiency. There are questions, however, about, among other issues, the effectiveness of biometric…
	Engaging Privacy and Information Technology in a Digital Age Privacy is a growing concern in the United States and around the world. The spread of the Internet and the seemingly boundaryless options for collecting, saving, sharing, and comparing information trigger consumer worries. Online practices of business and…
	Protecting Individual Privacy in the Struggle Against Terrorists: A Framework for Program Assessment All U.S. agencies with counterterrorism programs that collect or “mine” personal data — such as phone records or Web sites visited — should be required to evaluate the programs’ effectiveness, lawfulness, and impacts on privacy. A framework is…

Panicking Over Prices at the Pump? New Technologies and Energy Efficiency Can Reduce Our Need for Gasoline

Drivers everywhere are feeling pain at the pump. With gas prices hovering at $4.00 a gallon in many areas, many of us are trying to reduce the amount of driving we do. Combining trips, switching to public transportation, walking, and biking can all help reduce our personal use, at least in the short run. According to the Department of Energy, demand for gas recently dropped. Transportation is responsible for more than two-thirds of U.S. oil consumption, and about 60 percent of the oil we use must be imported. Dependence on imported oil leads to concerns over vulnerability to disruptions, especially if world oil production peaks. Use of gasoline in vehicles also accounts for one-third of U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas linked to global climate change. The U.S. government is seeking to reduce the use of oil to help meet both challenges. A longer-term solution to the oil problem would be to invest in and encourage research in systems that are more energy efficient, and new technologies that do not rely on gasoline.

The National Research council has produced a number of reports on the subject of energy, summarizing our current status and examining prospects for the future. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies — Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) evaluates battery and vehicle technologies to predict how costs might drop as technology improves and economies of scale increase and examines the ability of the electric grid to supply power for a growing PHEV fleet. It also analyzes two potential market-penetration rates for PHEVs.

Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles states that a significant number of technologies exist that can reduce the fuel consumption of light-duty vehicles while maintaining similar performance, safety, and utility. Each technology has its own characteristic fuel-consumption benefit and estimated cost. Although these technologies are often considered independently, there can be positive and negative interactions among individual technologies, and so the technologies must be effectively integrated into the full vehicle system.

America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation discusses ways that, with a sustained national commitment, the United States could obtain substantial energy efficiency improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated deployment of existing and emerging energy-supply and end-use technologies.

These books and others on the subject can inform debate and assist in decision-making.

	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles The nation has compelling reasons to reduce its consumption of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide. Plug-in hybrid electric…
	Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles Various combinations of commercially available technologies could greatly reduce fuel consumption in passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, minivans, and other light-duty vehicles without compromising vehicle performance or safety. Assessment of…
	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition Energy production and use touch our lives in countless ways. We are reminded of the cost of energy every time we fill up at the gas pump, pay an electricity bill, or purchase an airline ticket. Energy use also has important indirect impacts, not all of which…
	Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States America’s economy and lifestyles have been shaped by the low prices and availability of energy. In the last decade, however, the…
	Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles evaluates various technologies and methods that could improve the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, such as tractor-trailers, transit…
	Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like…
	Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions — Special Report 298 TRB Special Report 298: Driving and the Built Environment: Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO2 Emissions examines the relationship between land development patterns and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the…
	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–A Focus on Hydrogen Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) could alleviate the nation’s dependence on oil and reduce U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas. Industry-and government-sponsored research programs have made very impressive technical progress over…
	Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Second Report The FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership is a collaborative effort among the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Council for Automotive Research (USCAR), and five major energy companies to manage research that will enable the vision of a clean and sustainable…
	Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options: A Summary Report of the Workshop Recent events and analyses have suggested that global production of oil might peak sometime within the next few years to the next one or two decades. Other analyses, however, conclude that oil supply can meet global demand for some decades to come and that oil…

Climate Change Resources

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A report released today from the National Research Council reiterates the pressing need for substantial action to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare to adapt to its impacts. Read about the America’s Climate Choices series below.

America’s Climate Choices, which builds on the four previous America’s Climate Choices panel reports, reaffirms that the preponderance of scientific evidence points to human activities as the most likely cause for most of the global warming that has occurred during the last several decades. Furthermore, the risk of dangerous climate change impacts is growing with every ton of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.

America’s Climate Choices makes the case for implementing strong federal policies that establish coherent national goals and incentives, and that promote strong U.S. engagement in international-level response efforts.

America’s Climate Choices Panel Reports:

Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change

	Understanding Earth’s Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future Prepublication Available There is little dispute within the scientific community that humans are changing Earth’s climate on a decadal to century time-scale. By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels that Earth…
	Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth’s climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock Earth…
	Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean The ocean has absorbed a significant portion of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions. This benefits human society by moderating the rate of climate change, but also causes unprecedented changes to ocean chemistry. Carbon dioxide taken up by the ocean…
	Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements The world’s nations are moving toward agreements that will bind us together in an effort to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. With such agreements will come the need for all nations to make accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and to monitor…
	Monitoring Climate Change Impacts: Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems The stresses associated with climate change are expected to be felt keenly as human population grows to a projected 9 billion by the middle of this century, increasing the demand for resources and supporting infrastructure. Therefore, information to assess…
	Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years In response to a request from Congress, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years assesses the state of scientific efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records for Earth during approximately the last 2,000 years and the…
	Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, among other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited…
	Understanding Climate’s Influence on Human Evolution The hominin fossil record documents a history of critical evolutionary events that have ultimately shaped and defined what it means to be human, including the origins of bipedalism; the emergence of our genus Homo; the first use of stone tools; increases in…
	Global Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Understanding the Contributions to Infectious Disease Emergence: Workshop Summary Long before the “germ theory” of disease was described, late in the nineteenth century, humans knew that climatic conditions influence the appearance and spread of epidemic diseases. Ancient notions about the effects of weather and climate on disease remain…
	Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) coordinates the efforts of 13 federal agencies to understand why climate is changing, to improve predictions about how it will change in the future, and to use that information to assess impacts on human systems…

For Earth Day, Resources to Communicate the Science of Climate Change

The impacts of human activities—particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, but also including other greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and population growth—are so vast that they will largely control the future of the Earth’s climate system. This future could bring a relatively mild change in climate, or it could deliver an extreme change from today’s climate to entirely different climate conditions that will last many thousands of years. The eventual course of the climate system over millennia will be determined largely by the actions taken this century by governments, businesses, and individuals around the world.

Earth and its residents are entering a new geological epoch—the Anthropocene—in which human activities are a primary force affecting climate. Our actions this century to reduce or increase greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether the Anthropocene is a relatively mild event or a severe transition extending over many thousands of years.

Society is beginning to make important choices regarding future greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia considers the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at particular concentration levels. While this book does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts.

The books from the America’s Climate Choices series address the serious and sweeping issues associated with global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond. Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, and Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change are an authoritative set of analyses to inform and guide responses to climate change across the nation.

These books and others from the National Research Council are available to read online at no charge. The catalog pages for these books contain links to videos and other materials that are great teacher resources. If you teach at the undergraduate or graduate level, visit www.nap.edu/contact.html to request an examination copy of these or any other titles that you feel would be appropriate to use as a textbook for a course.

	Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth’s climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth…
	Advancing the Science of Climate Change Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for–and in many cases is already affecting–a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the…
	Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning…
	Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change Global climate change is one of America’s most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity–especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change–is affecting global average…
	Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The proportion of precipitation that falls as…
	Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean The ocean has absorbed a significant portion of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions. This benefits human society by moderating the rate of climate change, but also causes unprecedented changes to ocean chemistry. Carbon dioxide taken up by the ocean…
	National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the national security implications of climate change for U.S. naval forces. In conducting…
	Understanding Earth’s Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future There is little dispute within the scientific community that humans are changing Earth’s climate on a decadal to century time-scale. By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels that Earth…
	Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements The world’s nations are moving toward agreements that will bind us together in an effort to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. With such agreements will come the need for all nations to make accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and to monitor…
	Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment…
	Monitoring Climate Change Impacts: Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems The stresses associated with climate change are expected to be felt keenly as human population grows to a projected 9 billion by the middle of this century, increasing the demand for resources and supporting infrastructure. Therefore, information to assess…
	Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States Recent advances in air pollution monitoring and modeling capabilities have made it possible to show that air pollution can be transported long distances and that adverse impacts of emitted pollutants cannot be confined to one country or even one continent….

Science and the Future of Computing: Parallel Processing to Meet Tomorrow’s Challenges

Fast, inexpensive computers are now essential for nearly all human endeavors and have been a critical factor in increasing economic productivity, enabling new defense systems, and advancing the frontiers of science. For the last half-century, computers have been doubling in performance and capacity every couple of years. For example, the raw performance of a 1970s supercomputer is now available in a typical modern cell phone. The remarkable growth in computing throughout the lifetimes of most people has resulted in the expectation that such phenomenal progress will continue well into the future. As our demand for increased technology performance shows no signs of slowing, it becomes apparent that we need to find ways to sustain increasing performance.

In their efforts to make faster computers, scientists have concentrated on reductions in transistor size, enabling more transistors to be packed onto computer chips. Current chips range from several complex processors to hundreds of simpler processors. To use chip multiprocessors, applications must use a parallel programming model, which divides a program into parts that are then executed in parallel on distinct processors. However, much software today is written according to a sequential programming model, and applications written this way cannot easily be sped up by using parallel processors. The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? recommends that our nation place a much greater emphasis on IT and computer-science research and development focused on improvements and innovations in parallel processing, and on making the transition to computing centered on parallelism.

This book also discusses the need for research and development on much more power-efficient computing systems at all levels of technology, including devices, hardware architecture, and software. The Future of Computing Performance makes recommendations aimed at supporting and focusing research, development, and education in parallel computing. It sets a path forward to sustain growth in computer performance so that we can enjoy the next level of benefits to society.

This book and others from the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board can inform discussion and guide decision-making.

	The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level? The end of dramatic exponential growth in single-processor performance marks the end of the dominance of the single microprocessor in computing. The era of sequential computing must give way to a new era in which parallelism is at the forefront. Although…
	Wireless Technology Prospects and Policy Options The use of radio-frequency communication–commonly referred to as wireless communication–is becoming more pervasive as well as more economically and socially important. Technological progress over many decades has enabled the deployment of several successive…
	Transforming Combustion Research through Cyberinfrastructure Combustion has provided society with most of its energy needs for millennia, from igniting the fires of cave dwellers to propelling the rockets that traveled to the Moon. Even in the face of climate change and the increasing availability of alternative energy…
	Biometric Recognition: Challenges and Opportunities Biometric recognition–the automated recognition of individuals based on their behavioral and biological characteristic–is promoted as a way to help identify terrorists, provide better control of access to physical facilities and financial accounts, and…
	Critical Code: Software Producibility for Defense Critical Code contemplates Department of Defense (DoD) needs and priorities for software research and suggests a research agenda and related actions. Building on two prior books–Summary of a Workshop on Software Intensive Systems and…
	Toward Better Usability, Security, and Privacy of Information Technology: Report of a Workshop Despite many advances, security and privacy often remain too complex for individuals or enterprises to manage effectively or to use conveniently. Security is hard for users, administrators, and developers to understand, making it all too easy to use,…
	Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring CyberAttacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for U.S. Policy In a world of increasing dependence on information technology, the prevention of cyberattacks on a nation’s important computer and communications systems and networks is a problem that looms large. Given the demonstrated limitations of passive cybersecurity…
	Report of a Workshop on The Scope and Nature of Computational Thinking Report of a Workshop on the Scope and Nature of Computational Thinking presents a number of perspectives on the definition and applicability of computational thinking. For example, one idea expressed during the workshop is that computational thinking is a…
	Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities The United States is increasingly dependent on information and information technology for both civilian and military purposes, as are many other nations. Although there is a substantial literature on the potential impact of a cyberattack on the societal…

Nuclear Energy: Status, Prospects, and Issues

Events at Japan’s Fukashima Dai-ichi nuclear plant have caused many to take a closer look at the U.S. nuclear power industry. Nuclear power provides 19 percent of U.S. electricity as a whole and about 70 percent of electricity produced without greenhouse gas emissions from operations. Nuclear power plants have historically provided electricity safely and reliably, and they have operated with capacity factors greater than 90 percent over the last few years.

There has been substantial worldwide interest in building new nuclear power plants. This interest is evident not only in countries that led the world in the development of nuclear power, but also in developing countries with large economies. After years of relatively slow worldwide growth, many countries that do not have a nuclear power plant are considering building one; and many nations that already have one or more nuclear power plants are considering adding more nuclear power plants and expanding their nuclear enterprises with fuel fabrication, uranium enrichment, and spent fuel reprocessing facilities to serve an expanded fleet of nuclear power plants.

The National Research Council has produced a number of reports that examine the prospects for future development of nuclear energy, the processes for transportation and storage of commercial spent nuclear fuel, safety considerations for the operation of U.S. nuclear plants, and possible unintended dual-use issues.

America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation discusses the current status and prospects for nuclear energy in the United States. This book examines new technologies that could make nuclear power more efficient. Hidden Costs of Energy: Inpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use examines the costs and benefits of various sources of energy, providing detailed analyses of electricity generation from coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission, which together account for 88% of all electricity generated in the United States.

Safety and Security of Commercial Nuclear Spent Fuel Storage assesses the safety and security risks of spent nuclear fuel stored in cooling pools and dry casks at commercial nuclear power plants. Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle addresses concerns about the proliferation risk of adding enrichment facilities in countries that do not have them now, and the possibility of providing the needed fuel and reprocessing nuclear waste without requiring indigenous enrichment facilities.

These books and others can inform debate and guide decision-making.

	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation Energy touches our lives in countless ways and its costs are felt when we fill up at the gas pump, pay our home heating bills,…
	Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like…
	Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage: Public Report In response to a request from Congress, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Homeland Security sponsored a National Academies study to assess the safety and security risks of spent nuclear fuel stored in cooling pools and dry casks at…
	Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Goals, Strategies, and Challenges The so-called nuclear renaissance has increased worldwide interest in nuclear power. This potential growth also has increased, in some quarters, concern that nonproliferation considerations are not being given sufficient attention. In particular, since…
	Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments A component in the America’s Energy Future study, Electricity from Renewable Resources examines the technical potential for electric power generation with alternative sources such as wind, solar-photovoltaic, geothermal, solar-thermal,…
	Review of DOE’s Nuclear Energy Research and Development Program There has been a substantial resurgence of interest in nuclear power in the United States over the past few years. One consequence has been a rapid growth in the research budget of DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). In light of this growth, the Office of…
	Alternatives to the Indian Point Energy Center for Meeting New York Electric Power Needs Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, many in the New York City area have become concerned about the possible consequences of a similar attack on the Indian Point nuclear power plantslocated about 40 miles from…
	Going the Distance?: The Safe Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in the United States This new report from the National Research Councils Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB) and the Transportation Research Board reviews the risks and technical and societal concerns for the transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste…
	An International Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility — Exploring a Russian Site as a Prototype: Proceedings of an International Workshop As part of a long-standing collaboration on nuclear nonproliferation, the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences held a joint workshop in Moscow in 2003 on the scientific aspects of an international radioactive disposal site in Russia. …
	End Points for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in Russia and the United States End Points for spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in Russian and the United States provides an analysis of the management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in Russia and the United States, describing inventories,…
	One Step at a Time: The Staged Development of Geologic Repositories for High-Level Radioactive Waste Compared to other large engineering projects, geologic repositories for high-level waste present distinctive challenges because: 1) they are first-of-a-kind, complex, and long-term projects that must actively manage hazardous materials for many decades: 2) they…

Intelligence Analysis in the 21st Century: Contributions from the Behavioral and Social Sciences

In countries half a world away, major changes are happening that will challenge our nation to define or redefine our policies. Keeping pace with a fast-changing world where events can require a rapid, knowledgeable response requires excellent intelligence analysis for decision-making. The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation’s security depends. Their role is the pivotal middle point between gathering information and policy making. The IC’s success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence analysts serve our nation well in a challenging field. The behavioral and social sciences can make significant contributions to support these people, thus improving their already good work in a demanding area.

For a century or more, the behavioral and social sciences have studied how individuals and groups perform fundamental intellectual processes. That research has found that people perform some of these tasks much better than others. In some cases, the research has demonstrated ways to overcome weaknesses (e.g., through training or structuring analytical processes); in other cases, the research has identified problems that reflect limits to analysis that are important for decision makers to understand as aspects of the uncertainties that they face. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences recommends that the U.S. intelligence community adopt methods, theories, and findings from the behavioral and social sciences as a way to improve its analyses.

A companion book, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations, is a collection of individually authored papers, which presents the more detailed evidentiary base for the authoring committee’s conclusions and recommendations. The papers in this collection represent the individual work of committee members summarizing research on topics central to the IC’s mission.

Tom Fingar, a member of the committee and former Deputy Director of the Office of Director of National Intelligence, gave his perspective on this topic and these reports.

“More money, more collection, and more analysts will not enable the IC to satisfy 21st century requirements for intelligence support. Throwing money at the problem, even if that were affordable, and telling analysts to “work harder” cannot provide the insights and accuracy needed to reduce uncertainty about developments affecting US interests. We must “work smarter” by applying insights and scientific findings from the behavioral and social sciences. The lessons and recommendations summarized in these studies are timely, address both universal and unique aspects of intelligence analysis, and will be invaluable to IC analysts and managers alike.”

These titles and others from the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education show the contributions that the social and behavioral sciences can make to evaluations and improvement of our national security processes.

	Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations…
	Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify,..
	Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: Workshop Summary On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences–based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the…
	Behavioral Modeling and Simulation: From Individuals to Societies Today’s military missions have shifted away from fighting nation states using conventional weapons toward combating insurgents and terrorist networks in a battlespace in which the attitudes and behaviors of civilian noncombatants may be the primary effects…
	Human Behavior in Military Contexts Human behavior forms the nucleus of military effectiveness. Humans operating in the complex military system must possess the knowledge, skills, abilities, aptitudes, and temperament to perform their roles effectively in a reliable and predictable manner, and…

Harmful Health Effects of Nuclear Radiation Exposure: Resources for Prevention

The events at Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant remind us of the dangers of radiation exposure. Japanese military and police personnel engaged in efforts to bring the stricken plant under control face the risk of exposure to high levels of radiation, as may ordinary Japanese citizens who are also being scanned for high radiation levels. Even as we listen with relief to predictions that the wind will blow radiation away from centers of population, many of us are prompted to consider our own vulnerability. What would happen if we faced a similar event?

The National Research Council has authored several reports about preventive strategies to mitigate the harmful health effects of radiation exposure.

Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident assesses strategies for the distribution and administration of potassium iodide in the event of a nuclear incident. Potassium iodide can prevent thyroid cancer caused by exposure to the radioactive iodine that could be released in such an event. The report says that potassium iodide pills should be available to everyone age 40 or younger—especially children and pregnant and lactating women—living near a nuclear power plant. To ensure that potassium iodide will be available in the event of an incident at a nuclear power plant that causes the release of radioiodine, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has supplied participating states with an amount of the drug equal to two dosages for every person who lives or works within 10 miles of a nuclear power plant. In addition, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has purchased potassium iodide tablets for the national pharmaceutical stockpile. This book makes recommendations for the safest and most effective way to administer potassium iodide tablets on a mass scale in the event of a nuclear incident, taking into account projected benefits and harms and the populations that should be included in such a program.

Review of the Worker and Public Health Activities Program Administered by the Department of Energy and the Department of Health and Human Services reviews the quality of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Worker and Public Health Activities Program. The program was established to study the consequences of exposures to ionizing radiation and other hazardous materials used in DOE operations on workers and the general public in surrounding communities.

These books and others from the National Research Council examine how we can mitigate harmful effects in a nuclear event and protect workers and communities. Our titles that discuss health effects of low levels of radiation provide valuable information for decision makers and the general public.

	Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident Radioactive iodines are produced during the operation of nuclear power plants and during the detonation of nuclear weapons. In the event of a radiation incident, radioiodine is one of the contaminants that could be released into the environment. Exposure…
	Review of the Worker and Public Health Activities Program Administered by the Department of Energy and the Department of Health and Human Services
	Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR VII Phase 2 BEIR VII develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation. It is among the first reports of its kind to include detailed estimates for cancer incidence in addition to…
	Improving the Regulation and Management of Low-Activity Radioactive Wastes
	Going the Distance?: The Safe Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in the United States This new report from the National Research Council’s Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB) and the Transportation Research Board reviews the risks and technical and societal concerns for the transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste…
	Assessment of the Scientific Information for the Radiation Exposure Screening and Education Program
	Risk and Decisions About Disposition of Transuranic and High-Level Radioactive Waste The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) manages dozens of sites across the nation that focus on research, design, and production of nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors for defense applications. Radioactive wastes at these sites pose a national challenge, and DOE…

Math in Early Childhood and Beyond: Building a Foundation for Excellence for All Children

Mathematics is the language of science. A lot of attention has been focused on the need to improve the technical and scientific literacy of the American public. The new demands of international competition in the 21st century require a workforce that is competent in and comfortable with mathematics. At what age should we start preparing students? According to Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood: Paths Toward Excellence and Equity, we should start in pre-school. This book states that most children have the capability to learn and become competent in mathematics, but that for many, the potential to learn mathematics in the early years of school is not currently realized. This stems from a lack of opportunities to learn mathematics either in early childhood settings or through everyday experiences in homes and in communities. This is particularly the case for economically disadvantaged children, who start out behind in mathematics and will remain so without extensive, high-quality early mathematics instruction.

Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood recommends that a coordinated national early childhood mathematics initiative should be put in place to improve mathematics teaching and learning for all children ages 3-6. Our goal should be to ensure that all children enter elementary school with the mathematical foundation they need for success. This requires that individuals throughout the early childhood education system—including the teaching workforce, curriculum developers, program directors, and policy makers—transform their approach to mathematics education in early childhood by supporting, developing, and implementing research-based practices and curricula. The book develops research-based teaching-learning paths—sequences of learning experiences in which one idea lays the foundation for the next.

Adding It Up: Helping Children Learn Mathematics defines what it means to be successful in mathematics by describing the 5 strands of mathematics learning. This book examines school mathematics during a critical period in a child’s education—from pre-kindergarten (pre-K) through eighth grade.

Helping Children Learn Mathematics is a practical tool to provide comprehensive and reliable information that will direct efforts to improve school mathematics. It is addressed to parents and caregivers, teachers, administrators, and policy makers, as a guide to improve mathematics learning.

These books and others from the National Research Council can provide guidance and inform debate in mathematics education.

	Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood: Paths Toward Excellence and Equity Early childhood mathematics is vitally important for young children’s present and future educational success. Research has demonstrated that virtually all young children have the capability to learn and become competent in mathematics. Furthermore, young…
	Helping Children Learn Mathematics Results from national and international assessments indicate that school children in the United States are not learning mathematics well enough. Many students cannot correctly apply computational algorithms to solve problems. Their understanding and use of…
	Adding It Up: Helping Children Learn Mathematics Adding it Up explores how students in pre-K through 8th grade learn mathematics and recommends how teaching, curricula, and teacher education should change to improve mathematics learning during these critical years. The committee identifies…
	How Students Learn: Mathematics in the Classroom How Students Learn: Mathematics in the Classroom builds on the discoveries detailed in the best-selling How People Learn. Now these findings are presented in a way that teachers can use immediately, to revitalize their work in the classroom for…
	From Neurons to Neighborhoods: The Science of Early Childhood Development How we raise young children is one of today’s most highly personalized and sharply politicized issues, in part because each of us can claim some level of “expertise.” The debate has intensified as discoveries about our development-in the womb and in the first…
	Eager to Learn: Educating Our Preschoolers Clearly babies come into the world remarkably receptive to its wonders. Their alertness to sights, sounds, and even abstract concepts makes them inquisitive explorers–and learners–every waking minute. Well before formal schooling begins, children’s early…

Science and Disaster Response: Tools to Predict, Prevent, Prepare and Recover

Recent experiences with natural and human-caused disasters here and elsewhere in the world remind us that extreme weather events and disasters can exceed our control and the affected communities’ ability to recover on their own.

Some of these devastating effects on communities are the result of human decisions—for instance, land use and building codes, engineering of critical infrastructure, and many other social decisions and actions. Resilience to disasters is built at the community level. No community is immune to disasters, and no community is an island unto itself. The emerging role of critical infrastructure, just-in-time manufacturing, and the globalization of the economy means that all individuals and communities are interdependent. In the United States, the public sector represents just ten percent of the workforce. The other ninety percent resides in the private sector—ranging from small, individually owned businesses to national and global enterprises—and in a range of nongovernmental bodies and faith-based organizations. Building Community Disaster Resilience through Private-Public Collaboration develops a conceptual model for private–public collaboration and presents a series of guidelines intended for those who wish to create an environment supportive of community-level disaster resilience.

Predicting these catastrophes better is another way to mitigate the overwhelming devastation to communities. Understanding the Changing Planet: Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences looks at ways that the geographical sciences can best contribute to science and society in the next decade through research initiatives aimed at advancing understanding of major issues facing Earth in the early 21st century. Research on shifts in climate, soil erosion, habitat loss, and water degradation and understanding the human role in these changes is vital to foreseeing the magnitude and timing of future disaster events.

These books and others on the subject of disaster preparation and response, scientific research, and application of technologies can guide policy makers and inform the public.

	Building Community Disaster Resilience through Private-Public Collaboration Natural disasters–including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods–caused over 220,000 deaths worldwide in the first half of 2010 and wreaked havoc on homes, buildings, and the environment. To withstand and recover from natural and…
	Understanding the Changing Planet: Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences From the oceans to continental heartlands, human activities have altered the physical characteristics of Earth’s surface. With Earth’s population projected to peak at 8 to 12 billion people by 2050 and the additional stress of climate change, it is more…
	Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The proportion of precipitation that falls as…
	Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps This book presents a summary of the Workshop on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, held April 13 and 14, 2010, in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council’s Committee on…
	Private-Public Sector Collaboration to Enhance Community Disaster Resilience: A Workshop Report The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) on the United States prompted a rethinking of how the United States prepares for disasters. Federal policy documents written since 9/11 have stressed that the private and public sectors share equal…
	Applications of Social Network Analysis for Building Community Disaster Resilience: Workshop Summary Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the identification of the relationships and attributes of members, key actors, and groups that social networks comprise. The National Research Council, at the request of the Department of Homeland Security, held a two-day…
	Disaster Risk Management in an Age of Climate Change: A Summary of the April 3, 2008 Workshop of the Disasters Roundtable
	Recovering From Disaster: A Summary of the October 17, 2007 Workshop of the Disasters Roundtable Disaster recovery is a complex and challenging process that involves all sectors of a community as well as outside interests. In many cases, it is not even clear if and when recovery has been achieved because of varying stakeholder goals for the community, for…
	Tools and Methods for Estimating Populations at Risk from Natural Disasters and Complex Humanitarian Crises Worldwide, millions of people are displaced annually because of natural or industrial disasters or social upheaval. Reliable data on the numbers, characteristics, and locations of these populations can bolster humanitarian relief efforts and recovery programs. …
	Improving Disaster Management: The Role of IT in Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Information technology (IT) has the potential to play a critical role in managing natural and human made disasters. Damage to communications infrastructure, along with other communications problems exacerbated the difficulties in carrying out response and…