Monthly Archives: March 2011

Nuclear Energy: Status, Prospects, and Issues

Events at Japan’s Fukashima Dai-ichi nuclear plant have caused many to take a closer look at the U.S. nuclear power industry. Nuclear power provides 19 percent of U.S. electricity as a whole and about 70 percent of electricity produced without greenhouse gas emissions from operations. Nuclear power plants have historically provided electricity safely and reliably, and they have operated with capacity factors greater than 90 percent over the last few years.

There has been substantial worldwide interest in building new nuclear power plants. This interest is evident not only in countries that led the world in the development of nuclear power, but also in developing countries with large economies. After years of relatively slow worldwide growth, many countries that do not have a nuclear power plant are considering building one; and many nations that already have one or more nuclear power plants are considering adding more nuclear power plants and expanding their nuclear enterprises with fuel fabrication, uranium enrichment, and spent fuel reprocessing facilities to serve an expanded fleet of nuclear power plants.

The National Research Council has produced a number of reports that examine the prospects for future development of nuclear energy, the processes for transportation and storage of commercial spent nuclear fuel, safety considerations for the operation of U.S. nuclear plants, and possible unintended dual-use issues.

America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation discusses the current status and prospects for nuclear energy in the United States. This book examines new technologies that could make nuclear power more efficient. Hidden Costs of Energy: Inpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use examines the costs and benefits of various sources of energy, providing detailed analyses of electricity generation from coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission, which together account for 88% of all electricity generated in the United States.

Safety and Security of Commercial Nuclear Spent Fuel Storage assesses the safety and security risks of spent nuclear fuel stored in cooling pools and dry casks at commercial nuclear power plants. Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle addresses concerns about the proliferation risk of adding enrichment facilities in countries that do not have them now, and the possibility of providing the needed fuel and reprocessing nuclear waste without requiring indigenous enrichment facilities.

These books and others can inform debate and guide decision-making.

	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation Energy touches our lives in countless ways and its costs are felt when we fill up at the gas pump, pay our home heating bills,…
	Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like…
	Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage: Public Report In response to a request from Congress, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Homeland Security sponsored a National Academies study to assess the safety and security risks of spent nuclear fuel stored in cooling pools and dry casks at…
	Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Goals, Strategies, and Challenges The so-called nuclear renaissance has increased worldwide interest in nuclear power. This potential growth also has increased, in some quarters, concern that nonproliferation considerations are not being given sufficient attention. In particular, since…
	Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments A component in the America’s Energy Future study, Electricity from Renewable Resources examines the technical potential for electric power generation with alternative sources such as wind, solar-photovoltaic, geothermal, solar-thermal,…
	Review of DOE’s Nuclear Energy Research and Development Program There has been a substantial resurgence of interest in nuclear power in the United States over the past few years. One consequence has been a rapid growth in the research budget of DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). In light of this growth, the Office of…
	Alternatives to the Indian Point Energy Center for Meeting New York Electric Power Needs Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, many in the New York City area have become concerned about the possible consequences of a similar attack on the Indian Point nuclear power plantslocated about 40 miles from…
	Going the Distance?: The Safe Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in the United States This new report from the National Research Councils Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB) and the Transportation Research Board reviews the risks and technical and societal concerns for the transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste…
	An International Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility — Exploring a Russian Site as a Prototype: Proceedings of an International Workshop As part of a long-standing collaboration on nuclear nonproliferation, the National Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences held a joint workshop in Moscow in 2003 on the scientific aspects of an international radioactive disposal site in Russia. …
	End Points for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in Russia and the United States End Points for spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in Russian and the United States provides an analysis of the management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in Russia and the United States, describing inventories,…
	One Step at a Time: The Staged Development of Geologic Repositories for High-Level Radioactive Waste Compared to other large engineering projects, geologic repositories for high-level waste present distinctive challenges because: 1) they are first-of-a-kind, complex, and long-term projects that must actively manage hazardous materials for many decades: 2) they…

Intelligence Analysis in the 21st Century: Contributions from the Behavioral and Social Sciences

In countries half a world away, major changes are happening that will challenge our nation to define or redefine our policies. Keeping pace with a fast-changing world where events can require a rapid, knowledgeable response requires excellent intelligence analysis for decision-making. The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation’s security depends. Their role is the pivotal middle point between gathering information and policy making. The IC’s success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence analysts serve our nation well in a challenging field. The behavioral and social sciences can make significant contributions to support these people, thus improving their already good work in a demanding area.

For a century or more, the behavioral and social sciences have studied how individuals and groups perform fundamental intellectual processes. That research has found that people perform some of these tasks much better than others. In some cases, the research has demonstrated ways to overcome weaknesses (e.g., through training or structuring analytical processes); in other cases, the research has identified problems that reflect limits to analysis that are important for decision makers to understand as aspects of the uncertainties that they face. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences recommends that the U.S. intelligence community adopt methods, theories, and findings from the behavioral and social sciences as a way to improve its analyses.

A companion book, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations, is a collection of individually authored papers, which presents the more detailed evidentiary base for the authoring committee’s conclusions and recommendations. The papers in this collection represent the individual work of committee members summarizing research on topics central to the IC’s mission.

Tom Fingar, a member of the committee and former Deputy Director of the Office of Director of National Intelligence, gave his perspective on this topic and these reports.

“More money, more collection, and more analysts will not enable the IC to satisfy 21st century requirements for intelligence support. Throwing money at the problem, even if that were affordable, and telling analysts to “work harder” cannot provide the insights and accuracy needed to reduce uncertainty about developments affecting US interests. We must “work smarter” by applying insights and scientific findings from the behavioral and social sciences. The lessons and recommendations summarized in these studies are timely, address both universal and unique aspects of intelligence analysis, and will be invaluable to IC analysts and managers alike.”

These titles and others from the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education show the contributions that the social and behavioral sciences can make to evaluations and improvement of our national security processes.

	Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations…
	Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify,..
	Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: Workshop Summary On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences–based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the…
	Behavioral Modeling and Simulation: From Individuals to Societies Today’s military missions have shifted away from fighting nation states using conventional weapons toward combating insurgents and terrorist networks in a battlespace in which the attitudes and behaviors of civilian noncombatants may be the primary effects…
	Human Behavior in Military Contexts Human behavior forms the nucleus of military effectiveness. Humans operating in the complex military system must possess the knowledge, skills, abilities, aptitudes, and temperament to perform their roles effectively in a reliable and predictable manner, and…

Harmful Health Effects of Nuclear Radiation Exposure: Resources for Prevention

The events at Japan’s Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant remind us of the dangers of radiation exposure. Japanese military and police personnel engaged in efforts to bring the stricken plant under control face the risk of exposure to high levels of radiation, as may ordinary Japanese citizens who are also being scanned for high radiation levels. Even as we listen with relief to predictions that the wind will blow radiation away from centers of population, many of us are prompted to consider our own vulnerability. What would happen if we faced a similar event?

The National Research Council has authored several reports about preventive strategies to mitigate the harmful health effects of radiation exposure.

Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident assesses strategies for the distribution and administration of potassium iodide in the event of a nuclear incident. Potassium iodide can prevent thyroid cancer caused by exposure to the radioactive iodine that could be released in such an event. The report says that potassium iodide pills should be available to everyone age 40 or younger—especially children and pregnant and lactating women—living near a nuclear power plant. To ensure that potassium iodide will be available in the event of an incident at a nuclear power plant that causes the release of radioiodine, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has supplied participating states with an amount of the drug equal to two dosages for every person who lives or works within 10 miles of a nuclear power plant. In addition, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has purchased potassium iodide tablets for the national pharmaceutical stockpile. This book makes recommendations for the safest and most effective way to administer potassium iodide tablets on a mass scale in the event of a nuclear incident, taking into account projected benefits and harms and the populations that should be included in such a program.

Review of the Worker and Public Health Activities Program Administered by the Department of Energy and the Department of Health and Human Services reviews the quality of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Worker and Public Health Activities Program. The program was established to study the consequences of exposures to ionizing radiation and other hazardous materials used in DOE operations on workers and the general public in surrounding communities.

These books and others from the National Research Council examine how we can mitigate harmful effects in a nuclear event and protect workers and communities. Our titles that discuss health effects of low levels of radiation provide valuable information for decision makers and the general public.

	Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident Radioactive iodines are produced during the operation of nuclear power plants and during the detonation of nuclear weapons. In the event of a radiation incident, radioiodine is one of the contaminants that could be released into the environment. Exposure…
	Review of the Worker and Public Health Activities Program Administered by the Department of Energy and the Department of Health and Human Services
	Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR VII Phase 2 BEIR VII develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation. It is among the first reports of its kind to include detailed estimates for cancer incidence in addition to…
	Improving the Regulation and Management of Low-Activity Radioactive Wastes
	Going the Distance?: The Safe Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste in the United States This new report from the National Research Council’s Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB) and the Transportation Research Board reviews the risks and technical and societal concerns for the transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste…
	Assessment of the Scientific Information for the Radiation Exposure Screening and Education Program
	Risk and Decisions About Disposition of Transuranic and High-Level Radioactive Waste The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) manages dozens of sites across the nation that focus on research, design, and production of nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors for defense applications. Radioactive wastes at these sites pose a national challenge, and DOE…

Math in Early Childhood and Beyond: Building a Foundation for Excellence for All Children

Mathematics is the language of science. A lot of attention has been focused on the need to improve the technical and scientific literacy of the American public. The new demands of international competition in the 21st century require a workforce that is competent in and comfortable with mathematics. At what age should we start preparing students? According to Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood: Paths Toward Excellence and Equity, we should start in pre-school. This book states that most children have the capability to learn and become competent in mathematics, but that for many, the potential to learn mathematics in the early years of school is not currently realized. This stems from a lack of opportunities to learn mathematics either in early childhood settings or through everyday experiences in homes and in communities. This is particularly the case for economically disadvantaged children, who start out behind in mathematics and will remain so without extensive, high-quality early mathematics instruction.

Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood recommends that a coordinated national early childhood mathematics initiative should be put in place to improve mathematics teaching and learning for all children ages 3-6. Our goal should be to ensure that all children enter elementary school with the mathematical foundation they need for success. This requires that individuals throughout the early childhood education system—including the teaching workforce, curriculum developers, program directors, and policy makers—transform their approach to mathematics education in early childhood by supporting, developing, and implementing research-based practices and curricula. The book develops research-based teaching-learning paths—sequences of learning experiences in which one idea lays the foundation for the next.

Adding It Up: Helping Children Learn Mathematics defines what it means to be successful in mathematics by describing the 5 strands of mathematics learning. This book examines school mathematics during a critical period in a child’s education—from pre-kindergarten (pre-K) through eighth grade.

Helping Children Learn Mathematics is a practical tool to provide comprehensive and reliable information that will direct efforts to improve school mathematics. It is addressed to parents and caregivers, teachers, administrators, and policy makers, as a guide to improve mathematics learning.

These books and others from the National Research Council can provide guidance and inform debate in mathematics education.

	Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood: Paths Toward Excellence and Equity Early childhood mathematics is vitally important for young children’s present and future educational success. Research has demonstrated that virtually all young children have the capability to learn and become competent in mathematics. Furthermore, young…
	Helping Children Learn Mathematics Results from national and international assessments indicate that school children in the United States are not learning mathematics well enough. Many students cannot correctly apply computational algorithms to solve problems. Their understanding and use of…
	Adding It Up: Helping Children Learn Mathematics Adding it Up explores how students in pre-K through 8th grade learn mathematics and recommends how teaching, curricula, and teacher education should change to improve mathematics learning during these critical years. The committee identifies…
	How Students Learn: Mathematics in the Classroom How Students Learn: Mathematics in the Classroom builds on the discoveries detailed in the best-selling How People Learn. Now these findings are presented in a way that teachers can use immediately, to revitalize their work in the classroom for…
	From Neurons to Neighborhoods: The Science of Early Childhood Development How we raise young children is one of today’s most highly personalized and sharply politicized issues, in part because each of us can claim some level of “expertise.” The debate has intensified as discoveries about our development-in the womb and in the first…
	Eager to Learn: Educating Our Preschoolers Clearly babies come into the world remarkably receptive to its wonders. Their alertness to sights, sounds, and even abstract concepts makes them inquisitive explorers–and learners–every waking minute. Well before formal schooling begins, children’s early…

Science and Disaster Response: Tools to Predict, Prevent, Prepare and Recover

Recent experiences with natural and human-caused disasters here and elsewhere in the world remind us that extreme weather events and disasters can exceed our control and the affected communities’ ability to recover on their own.

Some of these devastating effects on communities are the result of human decisions—for instance, land use and building codes, engineering of critical infrastructure, and many other social decisions and actions. Resilience to disasters is built at the community level. No community is immune to disasters, and no community is an island unto itself. The emerging role of critical infrastructure, just-in-time manufacturing, and the globalization of the economy means that all individuals and communities are interdependent. In the United States, the public sector represents just ten percent of the workforce. The other ninety percent resides in the private sector—ranging from small, individually owned businesses to national and global enterprises—and in a range of nongovernmental bodies and faith-based organizations. Building Community Disaster Resilience through Private-Public Collaboration develops a conceptual model for private–public collaboration and presents a series of guidelines intended for those who wish to create an environment supportive of community-level disaster resilience.

Predicting these catastrophes better is another way to mitigate the overwhelming devastation to communities. Understanding the Changing Planet: Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences looks at ways that the geographical sciences can best contribute to science and society in the next decade through research initiatives aimed at advancing understanding of major issues facing Earth in the early 21st century. Research on shifts in climate, soil erosion, habitat loss, and water degradation and understanding the human role in these changes is vital to foreseeing the magnitude and timing of future disaster events.

These books and others on the subject of disaster preparation and response, scientific research, and application of technologies can guide policy makers and inform the public.

	Building Community Disaster Resilience through Private-Public Collaboration Natural disasters–including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods–caused over 220,000 deaths worldwide in the first half of 2010 and wreaked havoc on homes, buildings, and the environment. To withstand and recover from natural and…
	Understanding the Changing Planet: Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences From the oceans to continental heartlands, human activities have altered the physical characteristics of Earth’s surface. With Earth’s population projected to peak at 8 to 12 billion people by 2050 and the additional stress of climate change, it is more…
	Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The proportion of precipitation that falls as…
	Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps This book presents a summary of the Workshop on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, held April 13 and 14, 2010, in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council’s Committee on…
	Private-Public Sector Collaboration to Enhance Community Disaster Resilience: A Workshop Report The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) on the United States prompted a rethinking of how the United States prepares for disasters. Federal policy documents written since 9/11 have stressed that the private and public sectors share equal…
	Applications of Social Network Analysis for Building Community Disaster Resilience: Workshop Summary Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the identification of the relationships and attributes of members, key actors, and groups that social networks comprise. The National Research Council, at the request of the Department of Homeland Security, held a two-day…
	Disaster Risk Management in an Age of Climate Change: A Summary of the April 3, 2008 Workshop of the Disasters Roundtable
	Recovering From Disaster: A Summary of the October 17, 2007 Workshop of the Disasters Roundtable Disaster recovery is a complex and challenging process that involves all sectors of a community as well as outside interests. In many cases, it is not even clear if and when recovery has been achieved because of varying stakeholder goals for the community, for…
	Tools and Methods for Estimating Populations at Risk from Natural Disasters and Complex Humanitarian Crises Worldwide, millions of people are displaced annually because of natural or industrial disasters or social upheaval. Reliable data on the numbers, characteristics, and locations of these populations can bolster humanitarian relief efforts and recovery programs. …
	Improving Disaster Management: The Role of IT in Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Information technology (IT) has the potential to play a critical role in managing natural and human made disasters. Damage to communications infrastructure, along with other communications problems exacerbated the difficulties in carrying out response and…

Promoting Minority Participation in Science and Technology Careers: Keeping America Innovative and Competitive

The U.S. labor market is projected to grow faster in science and engineering than in any other sector in the coming years. Minorities are the fastest growing groups of the population but have the least amount of representation in these fields. This is especially true of underrepresented minorities—including African Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans— who comprised just over 9 percent of the overall total of minority college-educated Americans in science and engineering occupations in 2006. This number would need to triple to match the share of minorities in the U.S. population. Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation: America’s Science and Technology Talent at the Crossroads explores the role of diversity in the science, technology, engineering and medicine (STEM) workforce and its value in keeping America innovative and competitive. In the words of Dr. Freeman Hrabowski, chairman of the committee that authored this new report:

Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation highlights the challenges America faces in ensuring that all students, especially minorities, receive high-quality math and science education, pre-K through graduate education. The report also gives guidance to policy-makers on closing the achievement gap, reducing attrition for undergraduate STEM majors, and increasing financial and academic support. To remain globally competitive, the nation will need to increase substantially the number of Americans from diverse backgrounds who excel in STEM fields at all levels.

Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation builds on the landmark 2007 title, Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. A 2010 follow-up to that publication, Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited: Rapidly Approaching Category 5, repeats and reinforces the message of the original book for improvement and increased diversity in science education in order to strengthen our science and technology workforce for a globally competitive America.

These reports and others from the National Research Council can inform decision-making and discussion about STEM education, from kindergarten through graduate school.

		Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation: America’s Science and Technology Talent at the Crossroads In order for the United States to maintain the global leadership and competitiveness in science and technology that are critical to achieving national goals, we must invest in research, encourage innovation, and grow a strong and talented science and…
		Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future In a world where advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor is readily available, U.S. advantages in the marketplace and in science and technology have begun to erode. A comprehensive and coordinated federal effort is urgently needed to bolster U.S….
		Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited: Rapidly Approaching Category 5 In the face of so many daunting near-term challenges, U.S. government and industry are letting the crucial strategic issues of U.S. competitiveness slip below the surface. Five years ago, the National Academies prepared Rising Above the Gathering…
		Gender Differences at Critical Transitions in the Careers of Science, Engineering, and Mathematics Faculty Gender Differences at Critical Transitions in the Careers of Science, Engineering, and Mathematics Faculty presents new and surprising findings about career differences between female and male full-time, tenure-track, and tenured faculty in science,…
		Engaging Schools: Fostering High School Students’ Motivation to Learn When it comes to motivating people to learn, disadvantaged urban adolescents are usually perceived as a hard sell. Yet, in a recent MetLife survey, 89 percent of the low-income students claimed I really want to learn applied to them. What is it about…
		Educating the Engineer of 2020: Adapting Engineering Education to the New Century Phase I in the Engineer of 2020 project, Visions of Engineering in the New Century, described a set of attributes that are expected to be necessary for engineers that will perform well in a world that is driven by rapid technological advancement,…
		Engineering in K-12 Education: Understanding the Status and Improving the Prospects Engineering education in K-12 classrooms is a small but growing phenomenon that may have implications for engineering and also for the other “STEM” subjects–science, technology, and mathematics. Specifically, engineering education may improve student…
		Changing the Conversation: Messages for Improving Public Understanding of Engineering Can the United States continue to lead the world in innovation? The answer may hinge in part on how well the public understands engineering, a key component of the ‘innovation engine’. A related concern is how to encourage young people–particularly girls and…
		Surrounded by Science: Learning Science in Informal Environments Practitioners in informal science settings–museums, after-school programs, science and technology centers, media enterprises, libraries, aquariums, zoos, and botanical gardens–are interested in finding out what learning looks like, how to measure it, and…
		Ready, Set, SCIENCE!: Putting Research to Work in K-8 Science Classrooms What types of instructional experiences help K-8 students learn science with understanding? What do science educators teachers, teacher leaders, science specialists, professional development staff, curriculum designers, school administrators need to know to…
		Mathematics Learning in Early Childhood: Paths Toward Excellence and Equity Early childhood mathematics is vitally important for young children’s present and future educational success. Research has demonstrated that virtually all young children have the capability to learn and become competent in mathematics. Furthermore, young…
		How Students Learn: Mathematics in the Classroom