When Weather Prediction Matters

While many of us are anticipating barbecues, beach visits, and the last trip to the swimming pool to celebrate Labor Day weekend, those of us on the Eastern Seaboard are also keeping our eyes open to the possibilities of Hurricane Earl having an impact on our plans. We receive a lot of information about various storm scenarios, but what becomes evident from listening to meteorologists is that we still need more tools in order to predict with confidence the track of major storms. With a possibly active hurricane season ahead, it’s time to take a good look at our nation’s weather prediction abilities. The National Academies has information to offer about the current state of weather prediction, and makes suggestions for the future direction of research.

When Weather Matters When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs
The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to…
Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks
Detailed weather observations on local and regional levels are essential to a range of needs from forecasting tornadoes to making decisions that affect energy security, public health and safety, transportation, agriculture and all of our economic interests….
Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data: Summary of a Workshop
Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques…
Completing the Forecast Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a…
Fair Weather Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services
Decades of evolving U.S. policy have led to three sectors providing weather servicesNOAA (primarily the National Weather Service [NWS]), academic institutions, and private companies. This three-sector system has produced a scope and diversity of weather…