Monthly Archives: December 2010

Resources to Inform our Energy Future

As some of us prepare for holiday travel, it is fairly noticeable that gasoline prices have risen in recent weeks. U.S. prices currently range from $2.68/gallon in Denver to $3.29/gallon in San Francisco. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States leads the world in petroleum consumption. As consumers look for ways to reduce their fuel costs by combining errands and other means, it’s a good time to look again at our energy prospects.

America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation assesses the status of energy-supply and end-use technologies in the United States, both at present and over the next two to three decades. It is intended to inform the development of comprehensive/sustainable energy policies by our nation’s decision makers and to provide the technical underpinnings for more detailed explorations of key energy-policy options. This book analyzes the potential of a wide range of technologies for generation, distribution, and conservation of energy.

Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States, part of the America’s Energy Future series, examines the potential for reducing energy demand through improving efficiency by using existing technologies, technologies developed but not yet widely utilized, and prospective technologies. According to this study, energy efficiency technologies that exist today or that are likely to be developed in the near future could save considerable money as well as energy. Fully adopting these technologies could lower projected U.S. energy use 17 percent to 20 percent by 2020, and 25 percent to 31 percent by 2030. This book evaluates technologies based on their estimated times to initial commercial deployment, and provides an analysis of costs, barriers, and research needs.

These titles, as well as others in the America’s Energy Future series, form a picture of our present situation and our choices for the future. The National Research Council has recently published a number of books on energy, all of which can inform and guide debate and decision-making.

	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation Energy touches our lives in countless ways and its costs are felt when we fill up at the gas pump, pay our home heating bills,…
	Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States America’s economy and lifestyles have been shaped by the low prices and availability of energy. In the last decade, however, the…
	Electricity from Renewable Resources: Status, Prospects, and Impediments A component in the America’s Energy Future study, Electricity from Renewable Resources examines the technical potential for electric power generation with alternative sources such as wind, solar-photovoltaic, geothermal, solar-thermal,…
	Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass: Technological Status, Costs, and Environmental Impacts The transportation sector cannot continue on its current path: The volatility of oil prices threatens the U.S. economy, the large proportion of oil importation threatens U.S. energy security, and the massive contribution of greenhouse gases…
	Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like…
	Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles evaluates various technologies and methods that could improve the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, such as tractor-trailers, transit…
	Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles Various combinations of commercially available technologies could greatly reduce fuel consumption in passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, minivans, and other light-duty vehicles without compromising vehicle performance or safety. Assessment of…
	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles The nation has compelling reasons to reduce its consumption of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide. Plug-in hybrid electric…
	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–A Focus on Hydrogen Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) could alleviate the nation’s dependence on oil and reduce U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas. Industry-and government-sponsored research programs have made very impressive technical progress over…

Science for Climate Change Decision-Making

Earlier this month the World Meteorological Organization announced that the year 2010 is almost certain to rank among the top three warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850. WMO’s data show that 2001-2010 is the warmest ten-year period on record. In November WMO reported that concentrations of the main greenhouse gases have reached their highest levels recorded since pre-industrial times.

This year, the National Research council produced a number of studies that directly address climate change and its effects. Advancing the Science of Climate Change reviews the current scientific evidence regarding climate change and examines the status of the nation’s scientific research efforts. It also describes the critical role that climate change science, broadly defined, can play in developing knowledge and tools to assist decision makers as they act to respond to climate change. The report explores seven cross-cutting research themes that should be included in the nation’s climate change research enterprise, and recommends a number of actions to advance the science of climate change—a science that includes and increasingly integrates across the physical, biological, social, health, and engineering sciences.

Advice on prudent short-term actions and long-term strategies to deal with the effects of climate change can be found in the companion reports Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, and Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change.These titles and others from the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate provide information and direction for research and decision making.

	Advancing the Science of Climate Change Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for–and in many cases is already affecting–a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the…
	Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Some extreme weather events such as heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The…
	Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning…
	Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change Global climate change is one of America’s most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity–especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change–is affecting global average…
	Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth’s climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth…
	Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements The world’s nations are moving toward agreements that will bind us together in an effort to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. With such agreements will come the need for all nations to make accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and to monitor…
	Monitoring Climate Change Impacts: Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems The stresses associated with climate change are expected to be felt keenly as human population grows to a projected 9 billion by the middle of this century, increasing the demand for resources and supporting infrastructure. Therefore, information to assess…
	Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited…
	When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to…
	Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States Recent advances in air pollution monitoring and modeling capabilities have made it possible to show that air pollution can be transported long distances and that adverse impacts of emitted pollutants cannot be confined to one country or even one continent….
	Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data: Summary of a Workshop Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques…

Perspectives on the PISA Test Results from the Board on Science Education

The performance of U.S. students in science has been in the news this week, as we ranked 23rd in an international standardized assessment given to 15 year-olds in schools. We asked Martin Storksdieck, the director of the National Research Council Board on Science Education, for his perspective.

On December 7th the results of the largest international assessment of student performance in reading, math and science were released. The Programme for International Student Assessment, known as PISA, is conducted under the coordination of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and is supported by national organizations in 65 countries. The ranking of countries in PISA, based on the scholastic performance of a statistical sample of their 15-year olds on this test, can be a matter of much national pride or disappointment, may lead to questions about its validity and fairness, or might get ignored entirely. However countries may respond to this huge international effort, or whether one agrees entirely on the appropriateness of the assessment being used, PISA does elicit questions about why students in some countries do so much better than students in other countries, and ultimately what the factors are that make for effective education.

While research on reasons for country differences exist, there is little agreement on how much one country can learn from another. However, research on what contributes to effective science teaching and learning that is ultimately reflected in sophisticated and appropriate tests of student performance has been compiled and critically assessed in a variety of recent reports from the National Research Council. In Taking Science to School, America’s Lab Report and Learning Science in Informal Environments, various expert committees developed frameworks and criteria for effective science learning, based on existing evidence. These reports contain much of the information that can guide best practice in science education, and, if applied widely in and out of classrooms, may help improve student performance on tests like PISA.

These books and other titles from the National Research Council can inform discussion and provide guidance to promote science education.

	Taking Science to School: Learning and Teaching Science in Grades K-8 What is science for a child? How do children learn about science and how to do science? Drawing on a vast array of work from neuroscience to classroom observation, Taking Science to School provides a comprehensive picture of what we know about…
	Ready, Set, SCIENCE!: Putting Research to Work in K-8 Science Classrooms Podcast available here. What types of instructional experiences help K-8 students learn science with understanding? What do science educators teachers, teacher leaders, science specialists, professional development staff, curriculum designers, school administrators need to know to…
	America’s Lab Report: Investigations in High School Science Laboratory experiences as a part of most U.S. high science curricula have been taken for granted for decades, but they have rarely been carefully examined. What do they contribute to science learning? What can they contribute to science learning? What is the…
	Learning Science in Informal Environments: People, Places, and Pursuits Podcast available here. Informal science is a burgeoning field that operates across a broad range of venues and envisages learning outcomes for individuals, schools, families, and society. The evidence base that describes informal science, its promise, and effects is informed by a…
	Surrounded by Science: Learning Science in Informal Environments Practitioners in informal science settings–museums, after-school programs, science and technology centers, media enterprises, libraries, aquariums, zoos, and botanical gardens–are interested in finding out what learning looks like, how to measure it, and…
	Engineering in K-12 Education: Understanding the Status and Improving the Prospects Engineering education in K-12 classrooms is a small but growing phenomenon that may have implications for engineering and also for the other “STEM” subjects–science, technology, and mathematics. Specifically, engineering education may improve student…
	Exploring the Intersection of Science Education and 21st Century Skills: A Workshop Summary An emerging body of research suggests that a set of broad “21st century skills”–such as adaptability, complex communication skills, and the ability to solve non-routine problems–are valuable across a wide range of jobs in the national economy. However, the..
	Nurturing and Sustaining Effective Programs in Science Education for Grades K-8: Building a Village in California: Summary of a Convocation K-8 science education in California (as in many other parts of the country) is in a state of crisis. K-8 students in California spend too little time studying science, many of their teachers are not well prepared in the subject, and the support system for..
	Systems for State Science Assessment In response to the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB), Systems for State Science Assessment explores the ideas and tools that are needed to assess science learning at the state level. This book provides a detailed examination of K-12 science..
	How Students Learn: Science in the Classroom How Students Learn: Science in the Classroom builds on the discoveries detailed in the best-selling How People Learn. Now these findings are presented in a way that teachers can use immediately, to revitalize their work in the classroom for even..
	How People Learn: Brain, Mind, Experience, and School: Expanded Edition This popular trade book, originally released in hardcover in the Spring of 1999, has been newly expanded to show how the theories and insights from the original book can translate into actions and practice, now making a real connection between classroom…

FREE FROM NAP: December 2010

	Examination of Front-of-Package Nutrition Rating Systems and Symbols: Phase I Report The federal government requires that most packaged foods carry a standardized label–the Nutrition Facts panel–that provides nutrition information intended to help consumers make healthful choices. In recent years, manufacturers have begun to include…
	The Power of Renewables: Opportunities and Challenges for China and the United States The United States and China are the world’s top two energy consumers and, as of 2010, the two largest economies. Consequently, they have a decisive role to play in the world’s clean energy future. Both countries are also motivated by related goals, namely…
	High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates: Better Data, Better Measures, Better Decisions High school graduation and dropout rates have long been used as indicators of educational system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well being. While determining these rates may seem like a straightforward task, their calculation is in…
	The Role of Human Factors in Home Health Care: Workshop Summary The rapid growth of home health care has raised many unsolved issues and will have consequences that are far too broad for any one group to analyze in their entirety. Yet a major influence on the safety, quality, and effectiveness of home health care will be…
	Strengthening the National Institute of Justice The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) is the nation’s primary resource for advancing scientific research, development, and evaluation on crime and crime control and the administration of justice in the United States. Headed by a presidentially appointed…
	The 2009 H1N1 Influenza Vaccination Campaign: Summary of a Workshop Series The 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign was one of the largest public health campaigns in U.S. history, vaccinating one-quarter of the population in the first three months. The IOM held three workshops in Raleigh, NC; Austin, TX; and Seattle, WA to learn from…
	When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to…
	Research Priorities for Assessing Health Effects from the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill: A Letter Report It is as yet uncertain how the Gulf of Mexico oil spill will affect the health of clean-up workers and volunteers, residents, and visitors in the Gulf. The IOM recommends that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services focus on researching psychological…
	Transforming Clinical Research in the United States: Challenges and Opportunities: Workshop Summary An ideal health care system relies on efficiently generating timely, accurate evidence to deliver on its promise of diminishing the divide between clinical practice and research. There are growing indications, however, that the current health care system and…
	Critical Code: Software Producibility for Defense Critical Code contemplates Department of Defense (DoD) needs and priorities for software research and suggests a research agenda and related actions. Building on two prior books–Summary of a Workshop on Software Intensive Systems and…

Take 5 – Top 5 Books on Transportation

The scientists and engineers on your list may not always be the easiest people to shop for during the holidays. It should come as no surprise that we have recommendations. Take five and finish your holiday shopping with our most-recommended books for transportation enthusiasts.

	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles The nation has compelling reasons to reduce its consumption of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide. Plug-in hybrid electric…
	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–A Focus on Hydrogen Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) could alleviate the nation’s dependence on oil and reduce U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas. Industry-and government-sponsored research programs have made very impressive technical progress over…
	Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass: Technological Status, Costs, and Environmental Impacts The transportation sector cannot continue on its current path: The volatility of oil prices threatens the U.S. economy, the large proportion of oil importation threatens U.S. energy security, and the massive contribution of greenhouse gases…
	Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles evaluates various technologies and methods that could improve the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, such as tractor-trailers, transit…
	Review of the 21st Century Truck Partnership The 21st Century Truck Partnership (21CTP), a cooperative research and development partnership formed by four federal agencies with 15 industrial partners, was launched in the year 2000 with high hopes that it would dramatically advance the technologies used in…

Take 5: Top 5 Books on Engineering

	Changing the Conversation: Messages for Improving Public Understanding of Engineering Can the United States continue to lead the world in innovation? The answer may hinge in part on how well the public understands engineering, a key component of the “innovation engine.” A related concern is how to encourage young…
	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition Energy production and use touch our lives in countless ways. We are reminded of the cost of energy every time we fill up at the gas pump, pay an electricity bill, or purchase an airline ticket. Energy use also has important indirect impacts, not all of which…
	Technology for a Quieter America Exposure to noise at home, at work, while traveling, and during leisure activities is a fact of life for all Americans. At times noise can be loud enough to damage hearing, and at lower levels it can disrupt normal living, affect sleep patterns, affect our…
	The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in the New Century To enhance the nation s economic productivity and improve the quality of life worldwide, engineering education in the United States must anticipate and adapt to the dramatic changes of engineering practice. The Engineer of 2020 urges the engineering profession to recognize what engineers…
	Educating the Engineer of 2020: Adapting Engineering Education to the New Century Phase I in the Engineer of 2020 project, Visions of Engineering in the New Century, described a set of attributes that are expected to be necessary for engineers that will perform well in a world that is driven by rapid technological advancement…

Take 5: Top 5 Books on Earth and Environmental Science

	Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean The ocean has absorbed a significant portion of all human-made carbon dioxide emissions. This benefits human society by moderating the rate of climate change, but also causes unprecedented changes to ocean chemistry. Carbon dioxide taken up by the ocean…
	Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate Everyone–government agencies, private organizations, and individuals–is facing a changing climate: an environment in which it is no longer prudent to follow routines based on past climatic averages. State and local agencies in particular, as well as the…
	Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years In response to a request from Congress, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years assesses the state of scientific efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records for Earth during approximately the last 2,000 years and the…
	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition Energy production and use touch our lives in countless ways. We are reminded of the cost of energy every time we fill up at the gas pump, pay an electricity bill, or purchase an airline ticket. Energy use also has important indirect impacts, not all of which…
	Landscapes on the Edge: New Horizons for Research on Earth’s Surface During geologic spans of time, Earth’s shifting tectonic plates, atmosphere, freezing water, thawing ice, flowing rivers, and evolving life have shaped Earth’s surface features. The resulting hills, mountains, valleys, and plains shelter ecosystems that…

Take 5: Top 5 Books on Science and Technology

	Ensuring the Integrity, Accessibility, and Stewardship of Research Data in the Digital Age As digital technologies are expanding the power and reach of research, they are also raising complex issues. These include complications in ensuring the validity of research data; standards that do not keep pace with the high rate of innovation; restrictions…
	Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other…
	Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities The United States is increasingly dependent on information and information technology for both civilian and military purposes, as are many other nations. Although there is a substantial literature on the potential impact of a cyberattack on the societal…
	Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future In a world where advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor is readily available, U.S. advantages in the marketplace and in science and technology have begun to erode. A comprehensive and coordinated federal effort is urgently needed to bolster U.S….
	Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often…

Take 5: Top 5 Books on Energy

The engineers and scientists on your list may not always be the easiest people to shop for during the holidays. It should come as no surprise that we have recommendations. Take five and finish your holiday shopping with our most-recommended books for the scientifically-minded.

	America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition Energy production and use touch our lives in countless ways. We are reminded of the cost of energy every time we fill up at the gas pump, pay an electricity bill, or purchase an airline ticket. Energy use also has important indirect impacts, not all of which…
	Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like…
	Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles The nation has compelling reasons to reduce its consumption of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide. Plug-in hybrid electric…
	Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects The generation of electricity by wind energy has the potential to reduce environmental impacts caused by the use of fossil fuels. Although the use of wind energy to generate electricity is increasing rapidly in the United States, government guidance to help…
	Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy Coal will continue to provide a major portion of energy requirements in the United States for at least the next several decades. It is imperative that accurate information describing the amount, location, and quality of the coal resources and reserves be…

Take 5: Top 5 Books on Public Health and Nutrition

The scientists on your list may not always be the easiest people to shop for during the holidays. It should come as no surprise that we have recommendations. Take five and finish your holiday shopping with our most-recommended books for the health professional in your life.

	Women’s Health Research: Progress, Pitfalls, and Promise Even though slightly over half of the U.S. population is female, medical research historically has neglected the health needs of women. However, over the past two decades, there have been major changes in government support of women’s health research…
	Preventing Mental, Emotional, and Behavioral Disorders Among Young People: Progress and PossibilitiesMental health and substance use disorders among children, youth, and young adults are major threats to the health and well-being of younger populations which often carryover into adulthood. The costs of treatment…
	Retooling for an Aging America: Building the Health Care Workforce As the first of the nation’s 78 million baby boomers begin reaching age 65 in 2011, they will face a health care workforce that is too small and woefully unprepared to meet their specific health needs. Retooling for an Aging America calls for…
	Preventing Childhood Obesity: Health in the Balance Children’s health has made tremendous strides over the past century. In general, life expectancy has increased by more than thirty years since 1900 and much of this improvement is due to the reduction of infant and early childhood mortality. Given this…
	Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient RequirementsWidely regarded as the classic reference work for the nutrition, dietetic, and allied health professions since its introduction in 1943, Recommended Dietary Allowances has been the accepted source in nutrient allowances for healthy people. Responding to the expansion of scientific …